Download e-book for iPad: America's Strategic Blunders: Intelligence Analysis and by Willard C. Matthias

By Willard C. Matthias

ISBN-10: 0271020660

ISBN-13: 9780271020662

This survey of greater than fifty years of nationwide defense coverage juxtaposes declassified U.S. nationwide intelligence estimates with lately published Soviet files disclosing the perspectives of Soviet leaders and their Communist allies at the related occasions. Matthias indicates that U.S. intelligence estimates have been often right yet that our political and armed forces leaders normally missed them—with occasionally disastrous effects. The publication starts with a glance again on the function of U.S. intelligence in the course of international conflict II, from Pearl Harbor during the plot opposed to Hitler and the D-Day invasion to the "unconditional quit" of Japan, and divulges how greater use of the intelligence on hand can have kept many lives and shortened the warfare. the subsequent chapters facing the chilly struggle divulge what details and recommendation U.S. intelligence analysts handed directly to policymakers, and likewise what occasionally sour coverage debates happened in the Communist camp, referring to Vietnam, the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban missile challenge, the turmoil in jap Europe, the Six-Day and Yom Kippur wars within the center East, and the Soviet intervention in Afganistan. in lots of methods, it is a tale of overlooked possibilities the U.S. executive needed to behavior a extra in charge international coverage which can have refrained from huge losses of existence and large costs on palms buildups. whereas now not exonerating the CIA for its personal blunders, Matthias casts new mild at the contributions that aim intelligence research did make throughout the chilly battle and speculates on what may have occurred if that evaluation and suggestion were heeded.

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Extra info for America's Strategic Blunders: Intelligence Analysis and National Security Policy, 1936-1991

Sample text

They have been impressed by Anglo-American strategic air power however, and will seek to develop fighter defense and long-range bomber forces. 11. The Soviets will make a serious effort to develop as quickly as possible such special weapons as guided missiles and the atomic bomb. 46 A m e r i c a ’s S t r a t e g i c B l u n d e r s The text of the estimate contains a section entitled “The Basis of Soviet Foreign Policy,” a carefully crafted discussion of the role of Communist doctrine in the formulation of Soviet foreign policy.

It did not say that the Soviets would not misbehave or miscalculate. It did not say that they would not propagandize against the United States or that they would not try to subvert Western nations. It did not sound the tocsin so much as try to tell readers how to think about the USSR. Rethinking Soviet Intentions It did not take long after the publication of ORE 1 for the critics of the USSR to begin to challenge the estimate’s judgments. Only a month later, on August 1. Anatoly Dobrynin, In Confidence (New York: Random House, 1995), 26.

Military power had been the predominant force in the reconquest of Western Europe, and the United States was widely regarded as the strongest and most benevolent of the victorious Allies. There were, of course, situations that the war had either created or left unresolved. There were still two Chinas: the Kuomintang China of Chiang Kai-shek, who had not stopped trying to reassert control over China after having been driven back into southwest China during the fifteen years of Japanese aggression, and the Communist China of Mao Zedong, who was still operating from his stronghold in northwest China.

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America's Strategic Blunders: Intelligence Analysis and National Security Policy, 1936-1991 by Willard C. Matthias

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